Federal Network Agency Scenario Framework 2045The Federal Network Agency's 2025 scenario framework represents significant progress compared to 2023, and may then become completely realistic in 2030.
In my newsletter of February 4, 2024, I already dealt with the approved scenario framework of the Federal Network Agency. This is revised once a year. In 2024, for example, I criticized the 2023 scenario framework; today we are talking about the scenario framework from April 2025.
In the 2023 scenario framework, there were only 34.6 GW of gas-fired power plants in 2045. At that time, a distinction was made between nuclear, lignite, hard coal and gas. The new framework only includes "thermal power plants" with 63.5 to 82.5 GW.
The 2023 scenario framework omitted something very important when it came to batteries: the capacity information. It only wrote about the connected load in GW, but the term "GWh" never appears in the entire PDF. On page 69 of the new one, 100.8 GW to 175 GW of power and 220.9 GWh to 379.9 GWh of capacity are listed for 2045. Very minimalistic and, strangely enough, there is hardly any expansion after 2037. What are only 315 to 440 GW of photovoltaics doing with only 220.9 to 379.9 GWh of batteries? On a very sunny summer day, 440 GW of photovoltaics can deliver a yield of 2640 GWh. There are also 31.6 GW to 70 GW of electrolysis. However, due to a lack of sufficient battery capacity, these can only be operated if there is enough solar or wind power available. Obviously, no one thinks much of profitability calculations such as acquisition costs divided by operating hours.
My study Germany 100% solar from 2021 was only intended to show that it would also only work with solar power. The simulations from 2024 also provide new insights into a cost-optimized design.
I have often observed on App.electricitymaps.com that the yield of wind power is less than 3% of the installed capacity. That would be 7.5 GW of the 246 GW assumed in scenario C in 2045. If 50 GW of yield from solar and wind are missing, then 379.9 GWh from the batteries would not even be enough for 8 hours, while 4,000 GWh from the batteries would be enough for 80 hours. The renewable energies listed in Scenario C had an annual output of around 1030 TWh, compared to 1195.1 TWh net consumption. Storage losses and grid losses mean an even higher gross consumption. Germany's deindustrialization has already become apparent in 2021, which is why I have only assumed 900 TWh net consumption. The 2025 scenario framework represents significant progress compared to 2023, perhaps it will then become completely realistic in 2030.
I am currently filling out an application for the FFG - Research Promotion Agency. Among other things, you have to specify the 3 most important sustainability goals according to the SDG list. Number 15 "Life on land". Naturally, I thought about how the GEMINI next generation house supports life in rural areas and stops further urbanization. But far from it:
Wow, where has the human element gone?
Planetary cleanup back to 350 ppm CO2 means about 47,000 TWh of electricity to filter 1 ppm CO2 from the atmosphere and recycle it into carbon and oxygen. Who can afford that? Only a rich human race, 10 billion people in prosperity can do it. One million km² of energy-optimized settlement areas alone should contribute 150,000 TWh for the necessary electricity for world-wide prosperity and planetary restoration.
It's not about whether the shares will be worth 100 times or 1000 times more in 20 years' time or whether they will only be worth a few cents. It's about the future of us all. Will there be a big showdown between eco-fascism and yesterday's fossils, or will it be possible to overcome the deep divisions in society and inspire supporters of both sides to work towards a great new goal? Global prosperity and planetary restoration instead of saving, restricting, renouncing and climate catastrophe or peak oil and a little more climate catastrophe. Both sides must be convinced that they have no solution that is even remotely viable. On the one hand, it must be shown that net-zero emissions are a completely inadequate target and that the goal must instead be a planetary clean-up back to 350 ppm CO2. The other side must be shown that solar power enables a higher standard of living than fossil energy. It's about survival! The social situation in 2025 compared to 2005, extrapolated to 2045, is a horror world! If we are successful and your shares are worth 100 times more, this is just an addition to all the other achievements. One new shareholder said "Me with my very modest investment", but €400 times €1,000 is also €400,000 for all investments up to the creation of the prototype. There is a reward program for recommending the share to others. Two of the new shareholders have become shareholders through this reward program. Here are the details.
The situation has changed fundamentally since this company visited Slovakia. Necessary investment volume reduced by around 90%. Time to marketable product shortened by around one year. The 90% reduction in investment volume also means that each shareholder has significantly more shares. The share price is now lifted towards our targets at each milestone. These milestones can happen in all areas: Financial, new shareholders, new opportunities to attract new shareholders. Contracts to build the prototype, more houses and settlements. Cooperations for realization. Purchase, arrival and testing of important technical components. |
