The subsidy madness of national bankruptcyIt says something about up to 18 million heat pumps by 2045, assuming that they would cost an average of €40,000 with installation and would be 60% subsidized.This week I was in Stuttgart at the Eltefa trade fair. Why are heat pumps so expensive? It doesn't matter, you get up to 70% subsidized by the state if you have a low income. Great, a heat pump with installation costs €45,000 and you only have to pay €13,500 yourself, the remaining €31,500 is charged to the taxpayer. What would be a fair price? Purchase price China * 3 plus 10 hours at 90 € for installation, travel, small materials. So, for example, 1200 € purchase price China, 5,000 € end customer price with installation. But thanks to the super subsidies, you only pay €13,500 and the taxpayer pays the rest.
I heavily criticized the 2023 version of the approved scenario framework for 2045 as early as 2024, and now there is a new 2024 version. It mentions up to 18 million heat pumps by 2045, assuming they cost an average of €40,000 to install and are 60% subsidized. That makes 432 billion in subsidies by 2045, 288 billion will have to be paid by the citizens themselves. With reasonable prices, however, citizens would only have to pay 90 billion themselves. One of the heat pump people then wanted to argue with the higher quality. For Germany, the high electricity prices mean that much better heat pumps are built. Well, let's assume 15,000 kWh of heat as an annual requirement. The good one achieves this with a seasonal performance factor (seasonal performance factor) of 4.2, the bad one with a seasonal performance factor of 3.9. That makes 3571 or 3,846 kWh of electricity. That's only 275 kWh difference. Even at an electricity price of 60 cents, only € 165. So you can argue a price difference of € 1,650. At €3,300, the argument is already very borderline, but definitely not over €10,000.
The funding amount is 200 euros per kWh of nominal storage capacity or a maximum of 30 percent of the total eligible costs in the form of a one-off investment cost subsidy. I have an offer for 120 kWh CIF port of Koper Slovenia at €10,500. It could be that this will be €19,200 in the end customer bill for a GEMINI next generation house, part of the energy system. The customer in Germany could then receive 30%, €5,760. But if someone buys from a usurer, the same amount of subsidy would be paid out for just 28.8 kWh of battery. For the current 100 GW of photovoltaics, 300 GWh of electricity storage should be available. With the subsidy model, this would cost the state 60 billion in subsidies. But even the new scenario framework for 2045 includes 500 GW of photovoltaics. That would be another 300 billion in subsidies.
Capitalism is good for consumers because so many money-hungry capitalists are trying to capture market share with cheaper and better products. Let's take a look at what's going on in the Chinese car market. Xiaomi comes with 1,524 hp for only US$ 72,000, BYD introduces 1,000 kW fast charging power, electric cars with a range of 300 km for less than US$ 10,000 and subcompact cars the size of Lloyd, Isetta or Trabant for US$ 5,000. The worst enemies of the consumer are cartels, price fixing, unjustified subsidies and legal coercion. Why shouldn't fantasy prices be charged if the consumer is forced by law to buy the product? It's not about decency and the common good, but about money. You want to earn this money with the least possible effort. Legal compulsion to switch is like a land of milk and honey for entrepreneurs. The opposite of this is the electric car market in China, where there is a risk of not making it, even with absolute excellence in innovation and low prices. So this is also a comparison between two systems of government: One system manages to squeeze the consumer and the state to the hilt. The other system manages to activate the entire creativity of the economy for the benefit of consumers.
On the way back from the Eltefa trade fair, I also stopped by Helmholtzstrasse in Ulm. Surprise, surprise, there was a hydrogen filling station. 
Only € 19.25 per kg is quite cheap compared to the US$ 33 in California. Consumption is usually just over 1 kg per 100 km. 
But not for long: the hydrogen filling station will close on March 31, 2025. 
The dispenser looks quite compact, but behind it is the compressor station. It is quite an effort to press the hydrogen into the tank at 700 bar. That's the same pressure as at a depth of 7 km. The submarine that wanted to visit the Titanic was crushed at a depth of only 4 km. 
Is that all? No, behind it is the storage facility for the hydrogen! 
A gap in the fence reveals 6 huge hydrogen cylinders. After searching the internet, I couldn't find out anything about pressure and capacity. I could only find out from 2 passers-by that they are supposed to be 240 kg at 200 bar. I assume that the pressure cylinders are just long enough to fit on an articulated lorry. So an articulated lorry has to come to supply 50 cars with hydrogen. 
This is what it looks like in the general overview. 
Here is my criticism of a study in 2013, where they tried to talk down the electric car in order to get more money for hydrogen research. You can't spend money twice. Everything that has been invested in hydrogen research is missing from battery research.
CORP has been in existence since 1996. CORP stands for Competence Center for Urban Planning and Regional Development. There is a CORP conference every year, otherwise 2025 would not be the 30th conference. This year the CORP conference is from April 14 to 16 at FH Johanneum Alte Poststraße 149, 8020 Graz. ATTENTION: Program change Here is the program of the conference. On page 32 in the left column below you can find my presentation. This is on Wednesday, April 16 from 15:20 to 16:00 in Auditorium 1. Since there are 4 talks in this column, I think my talk will be at 15:20. Energy Optimised Settlements — Enabler for Necessary Civilization Targets Is the title of my contribution. Please let me know who would like to come. I should send the organizer a list of my participants.
Net zero emissions means reducing greenhouse gas emissions to a level that nature can supposedly absorb for a long time. For the rich, this means Maintain poverty, cause poverty, so that enough emission rights remain for the rich. See the architect and her opinion that Africans don't need roads.
Planetary cleanup back to 350 ppm CO2 means about 47,000 TWh of electricity to filter 1 ppm CO2 from the atmosphere and recycle it into carbon and oxygen. Who can afford that? Only a rich human race, 10 billion people in prosperity can do it. One million km² of energy-optimized settlement areas alone should contribute 150,000 TWh for the necessary electricity for world-wide prosperity and planetary restoration.
It's not about whether the shares will be worth 10 times or 100 times more in 20 years' time or whether they will only be worth a few cents. It's about the future of us all. Will there be a big showdown between eco-fascism and yesterday's fossils, or will it be possible to overcome the deep divisions in society and inspire supporters of both sides to work towards a great new goal? Global prosperity and planetary restoration instead of saving, restricting, renouncing and climate catastrophe or peak oil and a little more climate catastrophe. Both sides must be convinced that they have no solution that is even remotely viable. On the one hand, it must be shown that net-zero emissions are a completely inadequate target and that the goal must instead be a planetary clean-up back to 350 ppm CO2. The other side must be shown that solar power enables a higher standard of living than fossil energy. It's about survival! The social situation in 2025 compared to 2005, extrapolated to 2045, makes for a horror world! If we are successful and your shares are worth 100 times more, this is just an addition to all the other achievements. One new shareholder said, "Me with my very modest investment", but €4,000 times €1,000 is also €4 million for all investments up to the opening of the settlement in Unken as a starting point for global expansion. There is a reward program for recommending the share to others. Two of the new shareholders have become shareholders through this reward program. Here are the details.
The situation has changed fundamentally since this company visited Slovakia. Necessary investment volume reduced by around 90%. Time to marketable product shortened by around one year. The 90% reduction in investment volume also means that each shareholder has significantly more shares. |
