Trade balances and energy importsElectric mobility in China's 1991 five-year plan: 100 km on a motorized two-wheeler is either 4 liters of imported crude oil or 1 kg of domestic coal converted into electricity.Let's take a look at a very simple and logical train of thought, the consequences of which are currently shaking up the entire car industry: Electric mobility was first mentioned in a Chinese five-year plan in 1991. The idea behind it was that in order for a person to travel 100 km on a motorized two-wheeler, either 4 liters of crude oil must be imported or 1 kg of domestic coal must be converted into electricity. The petrol moped always remains a petrol moped, whereas the electric moped runs on any type of electricity, whether coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind or solar. That is pragmatism, tackling a problem step by step, that is Confucianism. I only learned about this strategy in China around 2006, but in 1992 I wrote about the 2-phase conversion in "Rise of the solar age": In order to convert the huge amount of different energy consumers to solar energy, an energy source that already has a good infrastructure would be ideal. This applies to electricity. As we all know, electricity comes out of the socket, and the consumer cannot tell the difference between a hydroelectric power plant, a nuclear power plant, a lignite-fired dirt spinner, a wind generator or a photovoltaic system behind the socket. This train of thought was consistently ignored in the EU, USA and Japan for a very long time and was pursued very consistently in China. Top managers in the EU car industry, such as VW CEO Dr. Winterkorn, had no idea about this and boldly denounced the electric car: This is what I wrote about it in 2008: An electric car powered by oil or gas in a combined cycle power plant is significantly more economical than a combustion engine. Since July 1, I have been able to gain practical experience in my Tesla Y SR RWD with LFP batteries: 14.1 kWh 100 km power output from the battery. With an average 93% efficiency when charging, 15.16 kWh/100 km from the socket or charging station. The power grid has 93% efficiency, so a power plant has fed 16.3 kWh/100 km into the grid. Now let's see how a power plant could generate this 16.3 kWh of electricity and feed it into the grid so that I can drive 100 km with it:
With an efficiency of 46.5%, it was the most modern coal-fired power plant in the world. It was demolished in 2024 as part of the "leave scorched earth" campaign. With 338 g CO2 per kWh of thermal energy from coal, that's 727 g CO2/kWh of electricity from the power plant. This means that with 100% coal-fired electricity from this power plant, I would have achieved 118 g CO2/km. And if you later get to 80% renewable energy, then it's only 24 g CO2/km.
If a country has no oil but has cars with combustion engines, then it has to import oil. This is quite tragic for poor developing countries if a considerable proportion of their hard-earned export earnings goes on importing oil. Let's take a look at the trade balance for different drive systems: In the case of oil, we calculate the oil price and the transportation of the oil to the border. If the country has its own oil refinery, then the processing is domestic value added. With the losses of the refinery, we assume 8 liters of oil import for 100 km of driving. With transportation €80 per barrel or €4 oil import per 100 km. That's €12,000 in oil imports for 20 years and 15,000 km per year. In the heyday of the German car industry, most of the value added in the production of a car was probably domestic and very little was imported. The reverse was true for the operation of the car. Electricity must be generated to power electric cars. If the country has no photovoltaic production, battery production, uranium or fossil fuels to generate electricity, then it must be imported. Up to the border, we calculate €300 per kW of photovoltaics and €60 per kWh of battery. If the country is far north, like Germany, we assume a very generous 4 kW of photovoltaics and 10 kWh of battery to supply an electric car: To start with, let's assume that some of the electricity is generated by importing energy sources in winter. These are € 2,500 imports. In sunny countries, this is even less, and is in the direction of €1,500 in imports for 20 years of driving. Sure, photovoltaics and batteries are more expensive in Germany, but this is about import costs, the higher price is then domestic added value.
China dominates the world market for photovoltaics and batteries. Each electric car avoids €12,000 in oil imports over the next 20 years. Norway exports oil. Every electric car will generate €10,000 more revenue from oil exports over the next 20 years. Therefore, Norwegians should drive with electricity from domestic hydropower instead of burning expensive oil products.
Around 2010, the Tata Nano was the price sensation: a car under €2,000, but it was powered by gasoline and thus had similarities to an inkjet printer: extremely cheap to buy, but then you have to constantly buy very expensive ink cartridges. 5 liters times €1.20 for 200,000 km is also €12,000, more than 6 times the purchase price. Electric cars have been available in China for around €5,000 for a few years now. Not fully-fledged cars, 80 km/h top speed and 150 km range with only 4 seats. Cars comparable to the Tata Nano. 8 kWh times €0.10 for solar power is only €1,600. That's €2,000 acquisition costs and €12,000 gasoline compared to €5,000 acquisition costs and €1,600 electricity. This is why global production of cars will increase considerably. Henry Ford's goal was to create a car so cheap that the ordinary worker (in a rich industrialized country) could afford it. The goal of the Chinese car industry is to create a car so cheap that the ordinary worker in a developing country can afford it.
Cars for ordinary workers? Henry Ford famously did not die impoverished because of this idea. Internet in the most remote areas of the world? Elon Musk is making good money from it. Really big changes require a profitable business model. Trust me to successfully implement the GEMINI next generation house, you will become a shareholder.
Net zero emissions means reducing greenhouse gas emissions to a level that nature can supposedly absorb for a long time. For the rich, this means Maintain poverty, cause poverty, so that enough emission rights remain for the rich. See the architect and her opinion that Africans don't need roads.
Planetary cleanup back to 350 ppm CO2 means about 47,000 TWh of electricity to filter 1 ppm CO2 from the atmosphere and recycle it into carbon and oxygen. Who can afford that? Only a rich human race, 10 billion people in prosperity can do it. One million km² of energy-optimized settlement areas alone should contribute 150,000 TWh for the necessary electricity for world-wide prosperity and planetary restoration.
It's not about whether the shares will be worth 10 times or 100 times more in 20 years' time or whether they will only be worth a few cents. It's about the future of us all. Will there be a big showdown between eco-fascism and yesterday's fossils, or will it be possible to overcome the deep divisions in society and inspire supporters of both sides to work towards a great new goal? Global prosperity and planetary restoration instead of saving, restricting, renouncing and climate catastrophe or peak oil and a little more climate catastrophe. Both sides must be convinced that they have no solution that is even remotely viable. On the one hand, it must be shown that net-zero emissions are a completely inadequate target and that the goal must instead be a planetary clean-up back to 350 ppm CO2. The other side must be shown that solar power enables a higher standard of living than fossil energy. It's about survival! The social situation in 2024 compared to 2004. Extrapolating that to 2044 makes for a horror world! If we are successful and your shares are worth 100 times more, this is just an addition to all the other achievements. One new shareholder said, "Me with my very modest investment", but €4,000 times €1,000 is also €4 million for all investments up to the opening of the settlement in Unken as a starting point for global expansion. There is a reward program for recommending the share to others. Two of the new shareholders have become shareholders through this reward program. Here are the details.
My studies on off-grid fast-charging settlements have already resulted in initial contact and a video conference with the CEO of a major African company. The most important statements: "There are about 2 million homes missing" and "Solar-powered cement factories are a fascinating new idea". Initial negotiations have been held with two financing platforms. There are several chances of an event that could lead to a jump in the share price. At today's share price, € 2 million would be 10,000 packages at € 200 and 300,000 shares for the buyer. However, if these € 2 million are only worth 20% of the AG, this would logically result in a very significant jump in the share price. |
